West Ham United suffered a humbling 5-2 loss at the hands of Liverpool over the weekend, leaving the Hammers with a mountain to climb as they bid to escape relegation.
West Ham remain in the bottom three, in 18th place, two points from safety, with 10 matches to go.
According to the latest Opta Premier League week-by-week prediction model, West Ham are 60.56% likely to finish 18th and get relegated.
Per the model, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur will escape the drop to the second division, while the Hammers go down, 15 years since their last relegation from the top flight.
West Ham’s battle to avoid the drop started on a terrible note, as they failed to properly address squad needs and add serious quality in the summer transfer window.
Unsurprisingly, West Ham won only one of their first nine league games and have been fighting to escape the pit they dug for themselves since then.
They sacked the uninspiring Graham Potter for Nuno Espirito Santo. The Portuguese tactician initially struggled in East London, but has managed to forge a formidable unit.
The West Ham hierarchy will wish they had swooped for Nuno sooner, especially considering their recent run.
Before the Anfield loss, the Irons had won three of their previous six games and had recorded only one loss in that run (D2).
They had secured as many wins in that run as in all their previous Premier League games. While the loss halts their momentum, it still hasn’t stopped Nuno from believing.
The Hammers were seven points adrift after a defeat to Forest on January 6, but have clawed their way back to within two points of Nuno’s former side in the safety of 17th place.
He will be hoping to topple the Tricky Trees while sticking it to his former employers, who abruptly dismissed him.
West Ham’s form since the turn of the year should give the team reason to believe. They have looked more spirited and determined.
The addition of Axel Disasi in defence has bolstered the rearguard.
He has marshalled the backline with authority since his arrival, playing a key role in rare clean sheets versus Bournemouth and Burnley.
Taty Castellanos joined in the winter transfer window, too, and has proven a handful for defenders. He runs the channels relentlessly and has given the team more mobility up top.
Others like Mateus Fernandes, Tomas Soucek, Mads Hermansen, and Soungoutou Magassa are stepping up to the plate.
It is worth noting that West Ham have a 21.87% chance of finishing 17th. They need to hold onto that belief that they can defy the odds stacked against them.
The teams around them look fragile, offering hope.
West Ham have a more difficult run-in than Forest and Spurs, but the Tricky Trees are yet to win a league game under Vitor Pereira, while Tottenham haven’t tasted victory under Igor Tudor.
The numbers may not be in their favour, but algorithms rarely decide survival battles.
What matters now is conviction, and there are enough signs to suggest West Ham should genuinely believe they can pull this off.
For all the damage inflicted at Anfield by Liverpool, there were flashes of resistance. They did not fold.
Nuno’s side carried a threat. They showed character against one of the division’s elite, and that counts for something at this stage of the season. It is evidence that the fight is still there.
Momentum in a relegation scrap can swing quickly, and right now, West Ham appear to be the side carrying the most energy.
Ten games are enough time to flip the narrative entirely. Two points are nothing. A single weekend can change everything.
If Nuno’s men continue to play with the aggression, structure and belief they have rediscovered in recent weeks, there is no reason they cannot overtake at least one of their rivals.
If West Ham lean into the spirit that has begun to re-emerge and refuse to be defined by projections, they give themselves a real shot.
The situation is precarious, yes. But it is far from hopeless.